The real impact of COP28 on the climate

After more than two weeks of intense negotiations, a deal at the UN’s CO28 climate summit in Dubai was approved in just minutes. And I was caught off guard.

I was live on the air as COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber slammed down his gavel. It happened so fast that for a moment, I struggled to confirm it was really done.

Now, nearly a week after the summit ended with a standing ovation, the world is taking stock of the Global Stocktake, the summit’s final text, which is already becoming known as the UAE Consensus.

Can a COP climate agreement be both good for the climate and bad? Both historic and disappointing? Many people tell me, yes.

Defying expectations

You might remember, before the summit began, there was a real sense that nothing would be achieved at all. This was a COP hosted by petrostate, helmed by an oil CEO and surrounded by controversy.

Instead, real progress was made, such as launching a long-fought-for loss and damage fund for developing nations. More than two weeks of negotiations also led to a final agreement calling – for the first time – for a transition away from fossil fuels.

Just like nearly every deal at UN climate conferences, this one doesn’t deliver everything that was wanted. More than 100 countries had supported a complete “phase out” of fossil fuels, but the language was softened to “transition away” from using fossil fuels for energy, but does not mention their use in plastics, transport or agriculture.

But given the context, the agreement – which was adopted by 197 countries and the European Union – is being seen as at least a partial win. And the signal it sends – on the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel age – is historic.

As Germany’s climate envoy, Jennifer Morgan, told me just after the deal passed: “You would have to be a very bad listener… to miss the signal that the future is renewables. From my perspective [it] is quite clear and can’t be ignored.”

Not all good news

But not everyone is happy. Developing nations are concerned the deal doesn’t go far enough. The final text is filled with loopholes, weak language and some apparent concessions to fossil fuel proponents.

As Samoan climate activist Brianna Fruean told me in Dubai, celebrating this deal would be like “celebrating flowers that will lie on our grave”. It is strong, emotive language, but reflects the feelings of many from small nations already bearing the brunt of climate change.

And although the agreement sends a historic message, climate campaigner Drue Slater, from Fiji, told me: “The time for signalling is long past.”

It’s all about implementation

So what comes next? As al-Jaber himself said, “an agreement is only as good as its implementation”. During his final speech, he cautioned: “We are what we do, not what we say.”

Will nations follow through on key parts of the deal, like tripling renewable capacity and doubling energy efficiency by the end of the decade? If so, the International Energy Agency says the world will creep about a third closer to meeting its climate goals.

More crucially, will countries actually start ditching fossil fuels? I confronted ministers from the UK and New Zealand about planned expansions of oil and gas operations. Both told me the COP28 deal won’t change their course of action.

But my lasting image of COP28 will be one of hope: two delegates hugging as the deal was announced. An emotional end to a gruelling two weeks.

As Catherine Abreu, the executive director of Destination Zero, explained to me in the closing hours of COP28, this marks a “turning point”. We now have a road map for climate action. Now it’s up to all of the countries that agreed the UAE Consensus to follow it.